2.1.1 Analysis and Long-term Projections of Population and Migration Trends in Russia: Developing Multivariate Scenarios, Assessing Socio-economic Consequences and Political Risks in a Changing Global World

Research Area 2. Demography and Active Ageing  → Research Program 2.1 Human Potential in Functional Demographic Projections

Project period

2020-2025

Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital

All industrially developed countries of the world, including Russia, face unprecedented demographic challenges in the XXI century: aging population, threat of depopulation, changes in the composition of households and increased international migration flows. All of them have a direct impact on the state and prospects of human potential development in Russia.

The research project Human Potential in Functional Demographic Projections focuses on creating a system of continuous monitoring, analysis and prognosing of the population size and composition, fertility, mortality and migration processes in Russia and its regions in historical and international contexts. This will make it possible to assess the changing degree of socio-economic and political risks for the country and to increase the validity of measures and strategic guidelines of socio-economic, family, demographic and migration policy

Project Aim

Developing theoretical understanding of modern demographic processes and their role in social development, namely:

• assessing long-term demographic trends in Russia,

• assessing the consequences of demographic changes for the political and socio-economic development of the country

• justifying strategic guidelines for family, demographic and migration policies

Project Objectives:

1. Improving and verifying the methodology for projections of the number and age-sex composition of the population, as well as the processes of fertility, mortality and migration
2. Analyzing long-term trends and conjunctural changes in demographic processes, structures and behavior of the population in Russia and in the world
3. Forecasting the number and composition of the population and households for the Russian Federation as a whole and its subjects
4. Analyzing the impact of demographic changes on Russian labor market and its subjects, on the education system, on the system of private and social intergenerational transfers, as well as on the pace of economic growth
5. Developing a methodology for building a system of national transfer accounts in relation to the Russian Federation
6. Developing strategic guidelines in the field of social and demographic policy

Key Findings

2020

Taking into account the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the initial hypotheses of fertility, mortality and migration have been clarified for the development of demographic forecasts. Hypotheses of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the increase in the retirement age on the working-age population have been formulated for a functional forecast

2021

A multivariate demographic forecast until 2035 has been made, on the basis of which the forecast of labor supply for the subjects of the Russian Federation has been implemented. The analysis of interregional internal labor migration has been carried out and its role in the formation of the labor market has been evaluated. A comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of fertility in Russia has been given and new approaches to its projections have been proposed. A system of national transfer accounts for Russia for 2019 has been built. Scenarios have been developed on the basis of which a trial version of the multivariate forecast of the population of the Russian Federation up to 2100 has been implemented

2022

While conducting a study of the demographic factor influence on human potential of Russia and its regions, alcohol consumption on road accidents has been assessed, changes in the level of teenage fertility have been analyzed, the rates of housing construction and migration in regional capitals and suburban municipalities have been examined.

Functional forecasts of the number and composition of student contingents at different levels of education have been made both for Russia as a whole and for its regions. It has been shown that the number of preschool children will decrease from 7.4 million in 2021 to 4.8 million -5.9 million in 2035, depending on the scenarios of future demographic development. The number of students in general education institutions, after reaching a maximum of 18 million in 2025, will decrease to 13.5–15 million by 2035. The number of students in higher education institutions by the mid-2030s  will exceed 5.3 million people, and the number of students in secondary vocational education institutions will be approximately 4.4 million people.

2023

National Transfer accounts are a system of indicators reflecting the movement of goods, services and income between age groups and consistent with the system of national accounts. The NTS is based on the concept of a life cycle, at certain stages of which a person's material needs and the opportunities for their satisfaction created by his labor income may not coincide. Thus, there is a shortage of resources for consumption at the stages of childhood and old age and their excess (surplus) in middle age.

The NCMU project assessed age profiles of consumption and labor income for men and women, as well as life cycle deficits, consistent with national accounts.

National transfer accounts of time used show how time is used within households for production and consumption by age and gender.

Within the framework of the project, these two accounts were combined by assigning monetary values to the time spent based on the cost of these services on the market. As a result, for the first time in Russia, estimates of the participation of men and women, depending on age, in market and non-market activities were obtained.

Shortage (+) / Surplus (-) of the life cycle, taking into account the market and non-market activities of men and women of Russia by age group in 2019 (per capita, rubles)

Educational Programs

Educational trajectory Demography — Economics. Demography Master's Program

Study Course Population and Development Studies. Population and Development Master's Program

HSE and RANEPA Joint Educational Workshops Social and Humanitarian Dimension of Human Potential

The Program of Additional Professional Education «Aging of the Population»

Publications

1. Report Labor Productivity and Russian Human Capital: Paradoxes of Interrelation? (RU) Authors: D. Avdeeva, N. Akindinova, I. Voskoboynikov, V. Gimpelson, M. Denisenko, Yu. Simachev, P. Travkin, A. Fedyunina; National Research University Higher School of Economics — Moscow: HSE, 2021
2. Denisenko M., Mkrtchyan N. Demographic Changes and Labor Supply in the Regions of the Russian Federation (RU) Scientific Digest No. 5 (10) • 2022
3. Pyankova A., Fattakhov T., Kozlov V. A. (2022)  The association between beverage-specific alcohol consumption and mortality among road users in Russia, 1965–2019 // Accident Analysis & Prevention. – 2022. – Т. 178. – P. 106859. doi
4. L. B. Karachurina, N. V. Mkrtchyan, A. N. Petrosian (2022) Migration and Housing Construction in the Regional Capitals of Russia and Their Suburbs //Regional Research of Russia. – 2022. – Т. 12. – №. 3. – С. 283-298. doi 
5. Zakharov S. V., Churilova E. V. Religion, religiosity and fertility in Russia. Is there a relationship? // State, religion, Church in Russia and abroad. 2022. No. 4(40). pp. 77-104
6. Mkrtchyan N. V., Gilmanov R. I.  (2023) Moving Up: Migration between Levels of the Settlement Hierarchy in Russia in the 2010s //Regional Research of Russia. – 2023. – Т. 13. – №. 2. – С. 305-315. doi
7. Karachurina, L.B. and Mkrtchyan, N.V., 2023. MIGRATION DISTANCES IN RUSSIA: A DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF MIGRANTS. Baltic Region, 15(2), pp. 4-22. doi
8. Pivneva E. A., Mochalova M. A., Lyubimova N. S. Production of cultural heritage in ethnic groups and local communities of the Russian Federation. (RU). // Research Digest. -№ 7(24). -  2023.

RIA

1. Bashun V.V., Abramov D.A., Porsina A.A., Bogoyavlensky D.D., Denisenko M.B., Reshetnikov K.V., Bondarenko M.V. Computer program "Demoscope Weekly (server part)".  Certificate of registration 2024661682 dated 05/21/2024
2. Bashun V.V., Bogoyavlensky D.D., Bondarenko M.V., Denisenko M.B., Reshetnikov K.V. Computer program "Demoscope Weekly (client part)".  Certificate of registration 2024661330 dated 05/16/2024

Digital product

Analytical system for working with demographic data Demoscope Weekly

Tools

Demoscope Weekly demographic data accounting and monitoring system

Conferences

Workshop National Transfer (Intergenerational) Accounts (RU) (Moscow, Russia, February 16, 2021)

XXII April International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (Moscow, Russia, April 4-22, 2021):
- Session Emigration from the Former USSR to Foreign Countries 1; Session Emigration from the Former USSR to Foreign Countries 2 (20/04/2021)
- Special Round Table ‘Demographic and Social Factors of Active Longevity (15/04/2021)

First Demographic Readings in Memory of Anatoly Vishnevsky: Demographic Horizons of Russia and the World in the Medium- and Long-Term Perspective (Moscow, Russia, November 9-11, 2021)

XXIII Yasin (April) International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (Moscow, Russia, April 5-22, 2022):
- special session Migration Processes During the Pandemic (RU) (07/04/2022)

International Conference "Demographic Changes and National Transfer Accounts in the CIS Countries" (Online, December 8, 2022)

Joint Scientific and Methodological Seminar "Demographic Research: Various Approaches" of the Ministry for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic of the Russian Federation, the Higher School of Economics and the Eastern Center for State Planning (Vosktogosplan) (Moscow, Russia, July 3, 2023)

Russian-Belarusian School "Population and Development", HSE and the United Nations Population Fund (Moscow, Russia, September 4-8, 2023)

International Scientific Conference "Economic aspects of the study of human resources in historical perspective" (Tashkent, Uzbekistan, November 16-17, 2023):
- section "Human resources from the point of view of historical demography and social policy". Denisenko M.B. Information resources for studying the history of the population in the territory of the former USSR in the 19th and 20th centuries" (17/11/2023)

International Conference "Functional Forecasts and Demographic Estimates for Russia and the CIS Countries" (Moscow, Russia, December 15, 2023)