The World-Class Human Capital Multidisciplinary Research Centre and the UNESCO Futures Studies Chair (UNESCO Futures Literacy Chairs network) presents the results of a human capital development trends study of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (HSE ISSEK).
The study methodology included big data mining using the HSE ISSEK-developed iFORA system, expert sessions, and a Delphi survey of more than 400 leading international and Russian scientists specialising in human capital.
A complete list of trends is available in the unique open-access database.
Trendletter #12 (09/2023) Unhealthy Lifestyle (RU)
Despite the growth in the number of people who consciously relate to their health, more than a quarter of the world's population suffer from physical inactivity, and in developed countries this figure is even higher.
The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the situation, as places for sports and outdoor activities have been closed. Physical activity could save up to 5 million people annually, and moderate-intensity training (only 2.5 hours a week) will reduce mortality by about 10%.
Trendletter #11 (09/2023) Lifelong Learning Concept (RU)
By 2030, more than 1 billion jobs in the world will change under the influence of new technologies, and successful adaptation to new conditions in the labor market will require continuous training (Lifelong Learning) and improving people's professional competencies.
It is expected that 40% of the basic skills for employees will change over the next 5 years, and in the 20-year perspective, digital literacy will become the main requirement for most jobs in all areas. Currently, in Russia, only 15% of the able-bodied population and 1% of pensioners are involved in additional education programs, whereas in developed countries – 40 and 5%, respectively.
Trendletter #10 (09/2023) Increasing Social Responsibility of Business (RU)
Against the background of worsening social, economic and digital inequality, business is paying more and more attention to issues directly related to human well-being. At the same time, the growth of information transparency and the speed of data dissemination increases public attention to what policies companies adhere to.
Ignoring social and value issues by business is associated with numerous risks, such as legal costs, reputational damage, loss of investors, suppliers, partners or customers, negative information background and a wide public response; 71% of consumers are ready to abandon the brand, for which profit is more important than caring about people.
Trendletter #9 (08/2023) Decline in Fertility and Spread of Reproductive Dysfunction (RU)
The birth rate in the world is decreasing. This is primarily due to the transition to an industrial and post-industrial society, when children are no longer considered as an additional labor force in the household, and their upbringing is becoming more and more expensive for the family. Women have more opportunities to study, to realize their professional ambitions, so they more often make a career choice, limiting themselves to the birth of one or two children or completely abandoning the role of mother. As a result, the average age of parents at the birth of a child also increases. For example, in Russia it has grown from 24.8 years in 1995 and to 28.8 years in 2020.
Trendletter #8 (07/2023) Digital Control Extention (RU)
Digital control tools are distributed everywhere: to protect infrastructure and production facilities, search for criminals, maintain law and order and labor discipline, measure human health indicators, etc. The COVID-19 pandemic largely legitimized the use of tracking technologies in order to ensure public safety: they were used for remote collection of biometric data and monitoring of compliance with the isolation regime, tracking contacts of patients and detecting clusters of people.
The authorities will continue to develop digital identification ecosystems to confirm the identity of citizens, ensure access to public services and multi-channel interaction.
Trendletter #7 (06/2023) New Employment Models (RU)
Today, part of the labor relations is being transferred to a digital environment that provides a rapid exchange of information and the results of intellectual activity. At the same time, the mobility of the population is growing, the attitude to work is changing. All this leads to the spread of non-standard forms of employment. Digital technologies provide communication between employees and employers at any distance and at any time, and allow organizing work processes in a new way. Partial and remote employment, freelancing, platform employment, outsourcing, employee sharing are becoming widespread
Trendletter #6 (05/2023) Urbanization Rates Differentiation (RU)
Successful urban development will be determined by investments in human capital and creative industries. The key factor of success in the competition between them in conditions of a high level of the population mobility is the availability of a comfortable urban environment for life and professional implementation that meets the standards of sustainable development.
Trendletter #5 (03/2023) Creative Economy Development (RU)
Creative industries are the most dynamically developing sectors of the world economy, a significant part of the added value of which is formed through creative activity and management of intellectual property rights.
Human capital is the main resource of creative economy. It is associated with the achievement of sustainable development goals, including ensuring quality education, gender equality, economic growth, and innovative development.
Trendletter #4 (01/2023) Ecology and Environment. Accelerating the Processes of Climate Change (RU)
Many of the destructive effects of climate change observed today are larger than those that have occurred over the past few centuries, and some (for example, sea level rise) may become irreversible. If the same greenhouse gas emissions remain in the 2020s, warming in the 21st century may exceed 2 °C.
According to the study, global warming will be accompanied by intensive precipitation, more frequent floods in some regions and droughts in others, melting of permafrost and glaciers, sea level rise, ocean acidification, a decrease in oxygen content in it, etc.
Trendletter #3 (11/2022) Politics and Regulation. International Order Regionalization (RU)
Today, it is within the framework of regional institutions that more modern and flexible rules of interstate cooperation are being developed, while the importance of the old international structures is declining.
Fragmentation of the world political order, regionalization of economic ties and the international legal system, emergence of new mechanisms of cooperation, cardinal restructuring of the world monetary and financial system are the main trends of the foreseeable future.
Trendletter #2 (10/2022) Healthcare. Transition to Preventive and Personalized Medicine (RU)
Progress in the field of genomic and cellular technologies, medical bioinformatics and active introduction of information technologies in medicine allowed us to move to a new model of medical care based on an individual approach to the patient.
The key elements of preventive medicine are early diagnosis systems, vaccination, as well as regular monitoring of individual human health parameters, including using wearable devices. The transition to preventive medicine will significantly contribute to reducing the burden on the primary health care sector.
Trendletter #1 (09/2022) Economy. Distributing Customer-centric Business Models (RU)
Focusing on the fastest possible customer’s needs satisfaction is the main characteristic of modern customer centric models. The service economy assumes that the consumer receives not just a product, but a solution to the problem (product-as-a-service).
Following the service and rank economy, the economy of impressions is gaining momentum. Goods and services are evaluated not so much by their objective characteristics as by their symbolic meaning for the consumer. In the future, it will give way to the transformation economy.