Education in the Context of Demographic Forecasting of the Russian Population
The dynamics of human capital is determined by two main components: quantitative, depending on population changes, and qualitative, depending on changes in education, work experience, qualifications and health. Both components interact and determine the dynamics of human capital. Understanding the whole range of problems related to human capital is achieved by studying its qualitative aspects and their interaction with quantitative changes.
According to experts, the level of education is an important factor influencing all key aspects of population’s demographic behavior– fertility, mortality and migration. Taking it into account in demographic forecasts can greatly improve their accuracy, as well as help answer not only demographic, but also socio-economic questions related to forecasting the future.
The new issue of the research digest provides up-to-date data on the influence of the education factor on many demographic indicators and their dynamics in modern Russia. Thus, many studies have shown that, in general, developed countries are characterized by a decrease in fertility rates as the level of education of women increases. This statement is generally true for Russia, but in Moscow, on the contrary, women with higher professional education have the highest average number of children born compared to those with a different level of education. These data doubt on the thesis of the inevitability of lower fertility among women with higher education.
Taking into account the educational statuses of migrants revealed that, in general, the educational structure of migration growth in Russia differs slightly from the educational structure of the Russian population itself. Based on this, we can say that the migration flow to the Russian Federation, contrary to existing stereotypes, does not worsen the educational structure of the population and does not damage human capital, depending on the level of education, at least according to formal indicators.
The authors of the new issue of the scientific digest (Vadim Ustyuzhanin, Vladimir Arkhangelsky, Igor Efremov, Yulia Zinkina, Andrey Korotaev) came to the conclusion that education is a powerful factor determining the heterogeneity of mortality and fertility rates among the population.
Human Capital Multidisciplinary Research Center Digest Project is managed by Olga Voron.
The new issue of the research digest (Russian version) is available at the link.
Previous issues are available at the link.
The research digest was prepared in the framework of a research grant funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant ID: 075-15-2022-325).