6.1.2 The Relationship between the Spatial Differentiation of Human Potential and the Resilience of Territories in the Context of Socio-Economic and Natural Factors
Nikolay Kurichev
Project Leader
Project period
2020-2025
Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital
Currently, the idea of space in all its component diversity as a dynamic open system is becoming increasingly relevant: the concepts of socio-geographical space, in which the key role played by human potential, the environment of the population and its resettlement. Human potential must be considered as a strategic resource for the development of regions and cities, and its impact is conditioned by the living environment of the population and its resettlement.
The research project The Relationship between the Spatial Differentiation of Human Potential and the Resilience of Territories in the Context of Socio-Economic and Natural Factors focuses on the development of recommendations for the management of human potential in different types of territories in close relationship with global changes in the economy and the natural environment, based on the ideas of regional resilience, considering the socio-economic dynamics of territories from the point of view of identifying vulnerabilities in their development.
Project Aim
Developing and testing theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing the resilience of territories at various spatial levels, taking into account socio-economic and natural factors, spatial differentiation of human potential
Project Objectives:
- Developing a methodological basis for the study of territorial resilience, taking into account the spatial differentiation of human potential and natural and socio-economic factors of its formation
- Analyzing global trends in the development of the natural environment and ecology affecting human potential, taking into account their diverse effects at the global, national and regional levels, as well as opportunities and threats
- Conducting a comprehensive analysis of territorial resilience and the factors explaining it, taking into account the economic, social and natural aspects of the formation of the human potential of territories
- Decomposing and zoning human potential of territories, analyzing spatial differentiation of human potential in connection with the landscape resilience, developing recommendations for the management of human potential in different types of territories in connection with global changes in the economy and the natural environment
Key Findings
2020
A methodological basis has been developed for a comprehensive study of natural and environmental trends and factors in the world and in Russia that affect the development of human potential, taking into account natural and climatic conditions and the level of resistance of Russian territories.
2021
A logical model of natural and socio-economic factors of territorial resilience in its relationship with human potential has been developed, tested on empirical material for various types of territories.
Methods for assessing the vulnerability of the Russian population to climate risks have been developed and a scheme for conducting calculations at various territorial levels has been defined, solving the problems of spatial comparability of heterogeneous data and assessing the greening of regional economies, and its approbation has been carried out using the example of calculations for the regions of Russia for 2005-2019.
2022
For the first time, estimates of changes in the comfort (discomfort) of natural and climatic living conditions of the population over the past decades have been obtained, taking into account both changing natural conditions (a point assessment according to the methodology of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and spatial unevenness of settlement.
Assessment of the natural and climatic comfort of life of the population by region, taking into account the unevenness of settlement: 1 - the most favorable, 2 – favorable, 3 – conditionally favorable, 4 – conditionally unfavorable, 5 – unfavorable, 6 – very unfavorable, 7 – absolutely unfavorable
2023
It has been revealed that the scale of climate change is noticeably ahead of shifts in settlement.
Estimates of the change in the zones of discomfort (comfort) in 2046-2055 (projected changes) compared to 2011-2020 are constructed. (current conditions) in accordance with the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and the forecast of population distribution in these zones, taking into account both climatic conditions and the expected population size by region. In the previous 30 years, both climate change and the outflow of population from the eastern and northern regions contributed to the concentration of population in areas with more favorable natural conditions for life, so that in the period 2011-2020. More than 90% of the Russian population lived in two zones (2 – favorable and 3 – conditionally favorable). In the forecast period (2046-2055), the proportion of the population in conditionally unfavorable, unfavorable and very unfavorable zones is growing (from 9.2% to 13.5-14.9%) due to the deterioration of living conditions in the south of the Far East (increased heat waves, winds and extreme precipitation). In the milder scenario of RCP 4.5, the regions of the south of the ETR are expected to return to the most favorable zone (12 million people or 8.7% of the population).
Zones of natural and climatic comfort according to meteorological observations in 2011-2020 and in accordance with the forecast scenarios of climate change for 2046-2055: 1 - the most favorable, 2 – favorable, 3 – conditionally favorable, 4 – conditionally unfavorable, 5 – unfavorable, 6 – very unfavorable, 7 – absolutely unfavorable
Educational Programs
Publications
- Gracheva R.G., Sheludkov A.V. Diffusion of Organic agriculture in Russia as a factor of rural resilience // Regional Research of Russia, 11, 2021, p. 578–588.
- Report Impacts of Climate Change on Human Potential, Economy and Ecosystems. (RU) Authors: Veronika Vinogradova, Olga Glezer, Raisa Gracheva, Alexandra Dorina, Alexander Zolotokrylin, Alexander Kotov, Nikolay Kurichev, Boris Morgunov, Vladimir Potashnikov, Andrey Ptichnikov, Liliana Proskuryakova, George Safonov, Yulia Safonova, Anastasia Semakina, Igor Semiletov, Anton Sizonov, Andrey Stetsenko, Tatiana Titkova, Natalia Shakhova, Alexander Sheludkov. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow: HSE, 2022.
- Report Sustainable Development during the Pandemic: Natural Resources, Climate Change and Territorial Resilience (RU). Authors: Veronika Vinogradova, Raisa Gracheva, Alexandra Dorina, Alexander Kotov, Nikolay Kurichev, Boris Morgunov, Boris Morgunov, Vladimir Potashnikov, Liliana Proskuryakova, Andrey Ptichnikov, Georgy Safonov, Julia Safonova, Anastasia Semakina, Igor Semiletov, Anton Sizonov, Andrey Stetsenko, Ivan Frolov, Elena Cherenkova and Natalya Shakhova. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow: HSE, 2022.
- Leroy, S.A.G., Gracheva, R. & Medvedev, A. Natural hazards and disasters around the Caspian Sea //Natural Hazards. – 2022. – Т. 114. – №. 3. – С. 2435-2478. doi
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N. K. Kurichev, V. V. Vinogradova, A.V. Sheludkov, O. B. Glezer "Vulnerability of the Russian population to climate risks", (RU) Research Digest , Issue No. 10 (15). 2022.
6. Report “The role of renewable natural resources in the sustainable economic development of Russia and the CIS member states”. M. E. Akim, G. V. Ermolenko, N. K. Kurichev, etc.; edited by L. N. Proskuryakova; National research. Higher School of Economics Univ.— Moscow: Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 2023. — 63 p.
7. V. V. Vinogradova, A.V. Sheludkov "Natural and climatic living conditions of the Russian population at the beginning and middle of the XXI century", (RU) Research Digest, Issue No. 01 (30), 2024.
8. Gracheva R. G., Vinogradova V. V., Muduev S. S. Adaptation of the population of the mountainous territories of Dagestan to climatic changes: trends in agriculture //Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The series is geographical. – 2024. – vol. 87. – No. 7. – pp. 946-962. Doi
Conferences
XXII April International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (Moscow, Russia, April 13-30, 2021):
- Special Round Table Sustainable Development during a Pandemic: Natural Resources, Climate Change and Territorial Resilience (15/04/2021)
XXIII Yasin (April) International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (Moscow, Russia, April 5-22, 2022):
- Special Round Table Sustainable Development in Unstable Times - is it Time to Reformat the Plans (07/04/ 2022)
Scientific seminar "Reactions of regional economies and communities to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia" (Moscow, Russia, May 13, 2022)
Round table on international cooperation in the field of climate policy within the framework of the XIV RAMI Convention within the framework of the Consortium (MGIMO, HSE, RANEPA and the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology of the Russian Academy of Sc(Moscow: Russia, October 14, 2022)
Scientific seminar "A multi-level approach to assessing the resilience of urban economies: an example of Russian cities" (Online, December 16, 2022)
M.I. Rogov's report on the assessment of the economic resilience of Russian cities in the context of 2014-0196.
Seminar "Territorial resistance: the role of human capital and natural and climatic factors" (Moscow, Russia, October 25, 2023)
Seminar "Statistical districts at the subregional level: international practice and prospects for implementation in Russia" (Moscow, Russia, November 24, 2023)