7.1.2 Strengthening Russia's Position in the Global Competition of Power Centers through Updating the Principles and Mechanisms of Arms Control and Human Capital Development in the Diplomatic Sphere

Research Area 7. Human Сapital and Security in the Global Context  → Research Program 7.1 Human Being and Countering the Threats of Global Destabilization

Project period

2020-2025

Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital

The development of human potential in the areas of diplomatic and expert support of Russia's leading positions in the global power centers competition (including issues of peace and security, control over nuclear weapons, other types of WMD, the latest and conventional weapons, military use of computer, space, communication and other new technologies) are key for Russia both in connection with the need to ensure their own national security, and in connection with an important role, which Moscow plays in the system of international governance (permanent member of the UN Security Council, key state of the CIS, EAEU, SCO, CSTO, etc.).

An essential role in building an effective policy in this area is played by the expert community in the diplomatic and military spheres, which not only provides analytical support to state authorities, but also is able to directly conduct scientific and expert diplomacy, influence decision makers, including in other countries, and provide expert support for strategic decisions that determine Russia's place in the global competition of power centers. In order to preserve and increase the Russian human potential in the diplomatic and military-political spheres, it is important both to develop a doctrinal and theoretical basis in the field of peace, security, arms control, and to increase the practical effectiveness of the use and development of existing human potential in these areas.

Project Aim

Conduct a profound rethinking of the principles and mechanisms of control over conventional arms, as well as over weapons of mass destruction, leading to the development of a new strategy for Russia to use a system of existing and new diverse agreements and measures in the field of arms control to strengthen Russia's position in the global competition of centers of power.

Project Objectives

1. Reassess the criteria for classifying countries and social models as world powers with a global role and interests
2. Build new models of power balances in a number of traditional areas (military force, nuclear factor, scale of economy, energy resources), identifying new groups of human-centric factors and indicators according to which the balance of forces and interests in the world looks completely different than when taking into account only traditional factors from the group of "hard power"
3. Study possible scenarios for the development of events in the field of armaments, arms control after the extension of the START-3 Treaty; creation of an electronic library on the international balance of forces and arms control
4. Systematize materials on escalation steps and measures, formation of a systematized arsenal of measures to de-escalate military-political incidents
5. Identify groups of factors related to the behavioral characteristics of a person, his preparedness, fitness, performance, initiative, etc. in the system of escalation/de-escalation factors of incidents and conflicts

Key Findings

2020

The collection and systematization of materials on escalation steps and de–escalation measures in the framework of international crises of the second half of the XX - beginning of the XXI century has been carried out, step-by-step deconstruction of escalation and de-escalation measures in these conflicts has been carried out. Groups of factors related to a person's behavioral peculiarity, his preparedness, fitness, performance, initiative, etc. have been presented in the system of factors of escalation/de-escalation of incidents and conflicts on the example of the Caribbean crisis (1962)

2021

Options for the escalation of international conflicts have been outlined, a comparative analysis of modern Western reports and recommendations on the problems of nuclear arms control has been carried out

Conferences

International conference Re-Designing Arms Control: START Extension, New Dimensions and Prospects for New Agreements (RU) (MGIMO, December 14–15, 2021)

XXII April International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development  (Moscow, Russia, April 4-22, 2021): Special Round Table ‘New Approaches in Washington and Moscow to Security and Arms Control Issues: 100 First Days of the American Administration?’(14/04/2021)