6.2.1 Analyzing and Modelling Long-term Strategies for Economic Development with Proper Account of Climatic, Natural and Anthropogenic Factors

Research Area 6. Natural and Climatic Factors Affecting Sustainable Development  → Research Program 6.2 Interaction of Socio-economic and Natural Systems

Project period

2020-2022

Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital

In the coming decades, economic development and international relations in the financial, technological, economic, and industrial spheres, as well as in the field of social development and environmental conservation will be largely determined by the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted at the UN General Assembly in September 2015. Human development is at the heart of SDGs. In this regard, it is vital for Russia to have a strategic vision and a comprehensive analysis of human and sustainable development opportunities, taking into account the global trends of green growth, advancement of green markets (including energy, metallurgy, transport, and other key industries), as well as the need to reduce the negative impact on the domestic environment and ecosystems.

The research project Analyzing and Modelling Long-term Strategies for Economic Development with Proper Account of Climatic, Natural and Anthropogenic Factors is aimed at forming a modern model complex and scientific potential for systematic work in the field of analysis of long-term strategies and scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, taking into account natural and climatic factors, environmental and regulatory constraints, as well as external conditions associated with tightening environmental regulation and carbon protectionism

Project Aim

Developing and testing a combination of economic and mathematical models for the analysis of Russia’s long-term economic strategies and its key industries taking into account the natural-climatic factors, environmental and carbon regulation, anthropogenic impact on the ecosystems

Project Objectives:

1. Creating an advanced model combination for the analysis of long-term economic scenarios
2. Conducting research based on application of global economic and mathematical models to Russia

Key Findings

2020

A basic representative module of the energy system has been developed for the IAM integrated assessment model of the long-term development of the Russian economy. Based on the CBM-CFS3 forestry development model (developed by the Canadian Forest Service and used in dozens of countries around the world), a database and calculation algorithms for the Russian forestry have been developed.

HSE joined the international scientific networks on economic modeling and analysis of sustainable development perspectives, such as the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), the TIMES modeling program of International Energy Agency (ETSAP), the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Initiative, the research consortiums on the EU-funded ENGAGE and NDC ASPECTS project, representing the world leading research institutions, universities and think tanks

2021

Scenarios for the long-term (up to 2050) development of the Russian economy using the TIMES-Russia model have been developed; the main factors affecting the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions have been identified, suggestions for regulating greenhouse gases, transition to a low-carbon economy, and the measures aimed at decarbonizing the Russian economy until 2050have been formulated. Databases have been formed to analyze the potential of low-carbon development of Russian regions

2022

Modeling scenarios of deep decarbonization of the Russian economy based on the TIMES - Russia model has shown that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 75-88% from 1990 levels by 2050 with a threefold increase in GDP per capita. Model estimates also show that under the most severe scenario, the annual cost of decarbonization of key sectors of the Russian economy will reach 12 billion US dollars by 2030 and 48 billion US dollars by 2050.  

Based on scenario calculations based on the TIMES - Russia model, the priority of bioenergy development was established for the deep decarbonization of the national economy and huge opportunities for increasing Russia's share in the bioenergy markets of the world, which is the most important factor for sustainable (including green) development in the face of sanctions and increasing geopolitical risks.

Publications

1. Gracheva R. et al. (2021) Sustainable Development during the Pandemic: Natural Resources, Climate Change and Territorial Resilience. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow: HSE, 2021 (in Russian)
2. Glezer O. et al. (2022) Impacts of Climate Change on Human Potential, Economy and Ecosystems.. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow: HSE, 2022 (in Russian)

3. Safonov G. V. et al. Prospects for decarbonization of the global economy in the context of the implementation of the UN Paris Climate Agreement ////Bulletin of International Organizations: education, Science, new Economy. – 2022. – vol. 17. – No. 4. – pp. 38-61. doi

Conferences

XXII April International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (RU) (Moscow, Russia, April 13-30, 2021):
- Special Round Table Sustainable Development during a Pandemic: Natural Resources, Climate Change and Territorial Resilience (15/04/2021)

XXIII Yasin (April) International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (RU) (Moscow, Russia, April 5-22, 2022):
- Special Round Table Sustainable Development in Unstable Times - is it Time to Reformat the Plans (07/04/ 2022)