1.1.3 Economic Growth, Human Capital and General Purpose Technologies at the Age of the Global Productivity Slowdown
Ilya Voskoboynikov
Project Leader
Project period
2020-2025
Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital
The scientific project Economic Growth, Human Capital and General Purpose Technologies at the Age of the Global Productivity Slowdown focuses on the impact of human capital and general-purpose technologies on the economic growth in Russia in the long run and in the cross-country context. Considering the role of the global slowdown in Russian stagnation, better understanding and quantitative assessments of this will make it possible to increase the effectiveness of state economic development programs and national projects aimed at stimulating long run economic growth.
Project Aim
Identifying the economic mechanisms of the global slowdown in productivity and assess their role in the long-term economic development of Russia, studying channels of interaction between human capital and general-purpose technologies in the context of a global slowdown.
Project Objectives:
- Developing theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing the impact of general-purpose technologies and human capital on economic growth in the cross-countries comparative perspective
- Creating a research infrastructure to assess the contribution of general-purpose technologies and human capital to economic growth with opportunities for cross-country comparisons
- Conducting empirical research based on parametric and nonparametric approaches in the areas of General Purpose Technologies, human capital and economic growth, General-purpose technologies, knowledge economy and economic growth and General Purpose Technologies and intangible assets
Key Findings
2020
New approaches have been developed to assess the contribution of general-purpose technologies and human capital to economic growth, taking into account the capabilities of Russian statistics and the features of long-term growth of the Russian economy. A methodology has been developed for assessing the impact of human capital on economic growth through the Jorgenson-Fraumeni indicator of changes in the quality of the workforce, which adapts data for Russia. The methodology has been tested for Russia in comparison with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
2021
For the Russian segment of the Total Economy DatabaseTM, designed for cross-country comparisons of growth and productivity for 122 countries, data on labor costs, real and nominal value-added, the number of employees and hours worked by groups with different levels of education, deflators of investments in capital involving the use of information and communication technologies have been prepared. Gross fixed capital accumulation in the context of ICT capital and other capital, as well as compensation for wages and capital expenditures in value added for the period from 1991 to 2020, as well as estimates of gross output, real value added and Supply and Use tables for the period from 2003 to 2016 for the Russia KLEMS indicator system, have been prepared.
Experimental calculations of the impact of market defects and government intervention on aggregate output in the Russian economy, taking into account intersectoral interactions, have been carried out. The analysis of the data showed that the obstacle to sustainable growth is the lack of diversification and high dependence on the state of the expanded extractive complex.
2022
The role of reallocation processes in Russian economic growth has been studied. It is revealed that the ‘fat years’ (2000-2008) for the Russian economy symbolize not only growth due to the inflow of investments, but also a tangible contribution of productivity, significantly outstripping its growth in other former socialist countries.
The special role of reallocation processes, noticeable at the macro level, has been shown. Firstly, it is a positive contribution of reallocation of labor to productivity growth, especially intense in the first decade and a half after the transition to the market. Secondly, it is an increase in the quality of capital which accelerated the growth of 1999-2008, and thirdly, it is a negative impact of the expanding informal segment of the Russian economy on labor productivity growth, primarily due to the low level of labor productivity in informal production (low-skilled construction work, minor repairs, retail trade).
The acceleration of productivity in the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and Russia in 2000-2008 compared to the 1990s
The growth rate of industrial labor productivity in 1961-2012
2023
Based on the historical database of the balance of labor resources of Federal State Statistics Service, the annual sectoral structure of the number of people employed in the Russian economy over a half–century period - from 1958 to 2004 has been reconstructed. It allows us to trace long-term structural shifts that are not observable by value indicators at the level of 18 branches of tangible and intangible production.
The main trends identified:
- the share of the commodity sector, which includes industry and agriculture, began to decline in the mid-1980s – that is, before the transition to a market economy began.
- the share of agriculture fell from 34% to 11% during the period under review, with the most intense decline until the mid-1970s.
- throughout the period under review, the share of services has steadily increased – from just over a third in 1958 (37%) to two thirds (67%) in 2004, and the share of services grew especially intensively during the transformational recession of the 1990s.
- with the general trend of growth in the number of people employed in the Russian economy from 1958 to 1990, the number of workers in agriculture and industry remained stable, ranging between 32.5 million people (1990) and 34.7 million people (1983) – employment growth implied a corresponding increase in the number of workers in the service sector.
The average annual number of people employed in the Russian economy in 1958-2004 by enlarged sectors
The share of employed in the Russian economy in 1958-2004 by enlarged sectors
Educational Programs
Economics of Development and Growth. Case of Russia
Publications
- Report Labor Productivity and Russian Human Capital: Paradoxes of Interrelation? (RU). Authors: D. Avdeeva, N. Akindinova, I. Voskoboynikov, V. Gimpelson, M. Denisenko, Yu. Simachev, P. Travkin, A. Fedyunina. The head of the author's team - V. Gimpelson.
- Voskoboynikov, V Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012 // Journal of Economic Surveys
- Tolokonnikov, A. Market Defects, Intersectoral Interactions and Industrial Policy in the Russian Economy. Preprint WP3/2022/02 WP3 Series Labor Market Problems. Moscow: HSE.
- Voskoboynikov I.B. General-purpose technologies, human capital and economic growth. // Research digest #2 (19). – 2023.
RIA
Voskoboynikov I. Database Russia KLEMS (release 1 from 1995 to 2009) Russia KLEMS (release 2 from 1995 to 2014) Russia KLEMS (release 2 from 1995 to 2016) (RU). Certificate of registration 2022623188, 01.12.2022
Voskoboynikov I., Lastovetsky D. Database “Data from the survey of fixed assets on form 11 for the fuel industry in 1961-2004”. Certificate of registration 2023623026, 04.09.2023.
Voskoboynikov I., Lastovetsky D. Database “Data from the survey of fixed assets on form 11 for the fuel industry in 1961-2004”. Certificate of registration 2023623118, 14.09.2023.
Voskoboynikov I., Lastovetsky D. Database “Data from the survey of fixed assets on form 11 for the fuel industry in 1961-2004”. Certificate of registration 2023623154, 19.09.2023.
Conferences
XXII Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development (Moscow, Russia, April 4-22, 2021):
- Special round table Labor Productivity and Russian Human Capital: Paradoxes of Interrelation?" (04/14/2021):
Presentation of the report Labor Productivity and Russian Human Capital: Paradoxes of Interrelation?" by I. Voskoboynikov.
- Session A-14-4. Productivity, Growth and Human Capital. Joint event of the HSE and the International Association for Income and Welfare Research (together with the section "Social Policy" (04/14/2021):
Bobyleva K. (HSE University) Contribution of intangible assets to the growth of the Russian manufacturing and service sectors in a comparative perspective
Tolokonnikov A. (HSE) Industrial Policy and Intersectoral Interactions in the Russian Economy
36th Annual General Conference Preliminary Program, Statistics Norway (Norway, August 23-27th 2021):
Ilya Voskoboynikov, Eduard Baranov, Kseniya V. Bobyleva, Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov, Dmitri Piontkovski, Aleksandr A. Roskin, and A. E. Tolokonnikov Intermediate Inputs, Human Capital, Intangible Assets and Economic Growth in Russia (25.08.2021)
Seminar on Applied Macroeconomic Research of the Higher School of Economics (RU), led by Yu. Simachev (Moscow, Russia, March 24, 2022):
Voskoboynikov I. Long-term Growth of the Russian Economy. Past Experience for Understanding the Consequences of the Ukrainian Crisis (presentation of the report)
International Scientific Conference "Economic aspects of the study of human resources in historical perspective" (Tashkent, Uzbekistan, November 16-17, 2023):
- Section "Human resources from the point of view of historical demography and social policy": Voskoboynikov I. Welfare and standard of living in the USSR and the Union republics in the interwar period (17/11/2023)