What is the reason for the increased risk of infectious diseases?

The resistance of bacteria to antibiotics has been declared by WHO as one of the global challenges to humanity. By 2050, deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections could reach 10 million people per year. Causes and consequences of increased risk of infectious diseases are in the spotlight of the new issue of trendletters, produced as part of a joint project of the Human Capital Multidisciplinary Research Center and the UNESCO Futures Studies Chair (UNESCO Futures Literacy Chairs network).

For reference: This series of trendsetters continues the practice of publishing reviews of global technological trends since 2014 and presents a unique database of global trends and challenges in the field of human development. This research of the HSE ISSEK is based on the results of iFORA Big Data System, the Delphi survey (with the participation of more than 400 leading foreign and Russian scientists), expert sessions and interviews.

The increase in pathogenicity and resistance of microorganisms is associated with the improper use of antimicrobials, improper disposal of waste from pharmaceutical enterprises and hospitals, and excessive use of antibiotics in the agro-industrial sector. A decrease in the effectiveness of antibacterial therapy leads to an increase in the burden on the healthcare sector.

Inequalities in access to effective treatment and prevention of infectious diseases persist in some countries. According to statistics collected before the COVID-19 pandemic, in high—income countries, only 1 out of 10 major causes of death related to infectious diseases, while in low-income countries - only 6. In addition, in recent years there have been no significant breakthroughs in the development of antimicrobial drugs.

Climate change also affects the epidemiological situation, contributing to the spread of zoonoses (infections transmitted from animals to humans). For example, an abnormal outbreak of anthrax in Russia in July 2016 was caused by atypical weather conditions: high air temperature caused the melting of the permafrost layer, which caused anthrax spores to penetrate into the upper soil layer and enter the organisms of deer feeding on foot food.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the priorities of the fight against infectious diseases have changed. National epidemiological safety monitoring systems are being developed, within the framework of which programs for early detection of potential pathogens, control of human zoonotic infections are being introduced, new vaccines and medicines are being developed.

The new issue of trendletter (Russian version) is available at the link.

Previous issues of trendletters can be found here.