2.1.4 Developing Multistate Demographic Models for Russia in the context of Educational Attainment and Health Status / Life Expectancy
Sergei Scherbov
Project Leader
Project period
2020-2025
Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital
The demographic situation has a direct impact both on the state of the economy as a whole and on individual markets for goods and services. Russian demographic projections show that we are highly likely to see a decline in the working-age population. People of working age are more than just a workforce. They have acquired a level of education, work experience, qualifications – qualities that, along with the state of health, constitute human capital. Thus, the dynamics of human capital is determined by two main components: quantitative, depending on changes in the population, and qualitative, depending on changes in education, work experience, qualifications and health. Both components interact to jointly determine the dynamics of human capital. The quantitative dynamics of human capital is determined by changes in the population, that is, fertility, mortality and migration. Therefore, its assessment requires the use of demographic methods and models. Demographic analysis of the dynamics of human capital forms basic demographic characteristics about the size of the workforce, age and gender composition of the population, and its distribution by major regions. Understanding of the whole complex of problems related to human capital is achieved by studying its qualitative aspects and their interaction with quantitative changes.
The research project Developing Multistate Demographic Models for Russia in the Context of Educational Attainment and Health Status / Life Expectancy examines four (or more, if the data allow) levels of education, demographic changes depending on these levels, deeply studies the impact of education on fertility in Russia. Within the framework of the project, differences in the life expectancy of people in individual educational statuses are also evaluated
Project Aim
Construct multi-state demographic models for Russia, taking into account the level of education and health status of the population
Project Objectives:
- Analyze fertility and mortality
- Forecast the dynamics of human capital
- Conduct demographic prognosis for territorial units that take into account the educational structure of the population
Key Findings
2020
An overview of the available data necessary for the construction of multistate models has been made. Estimates of fertility rates depending on the educational status have been made. The program of the regular seminar Developing Multistate Demographic Models for Russia in the context of Educational Attainment and Health Status / Life Expectancy has been developed
2021
The methodological features of the demographic indicator Human Life Indicator (HLI) have been described, compared with traditional indicators of human capital assessment (Human Development Index (HDI)). Quantitative estimates of human capital have been presented
2022
It has been found out that, in general, richer people are more inclined to adhere to the values of self-expression, including trusting people more, being more tolerant of homosexuality, they are more willing to sign petitions and participate in protests than the poor. At the same time, there is no equally pronounced commitment of rich people to secular-rational values as opposed to traditional religious values: for example, richer people have a more positive attitude to marriage, are more active members of church organizations, have a more positive attitude to inequality and competition, and are also more inclined to be proud of their nationality, which, according to R. Inglehart, is an indicator of adherence to traditional religious values.
Publications
Shulgin S., Zinkina Yu. Assessment of Human Capital in the Macro-regions of Russia (RU) // The economy of the region. 2021. Vol. 17, vol. 3. pp. 888-901
Conferences
Online seminar Assessment of Human Capital Using a New Demographic Indicator: Indicator of Human Life (RU) (Moscow, Russia, December 13, 2021)