2.1.3 Studying Mass Emigration and Immigration Flows, Strategic Guidelines for Russian migration policy
Andrey Polbin
Project Leader
Project period
2020-2025
Context of Research Project within a Subject of Human Capital
In the modern world, the role of globalization is becoming increasingly important. In particular, this is demonstrated through the channel of population migration. The migration of labor resources seems to be the most important factor of the economic growth problem. It should be noted that the migration of labor resources can be significantly differentiated by skill level. For a long time, there has been a tendency in the world to migrate labor resources with a high level of qualifications to developed countries – this phenomenon is called "brain drain". The migration of highly skilled workers from middle-income countries to high-income countries is the most widespread. Low-skilled labor is also migrating from low-income and high-population countries to high- and middle-income countries. Thus, countries such as Russia face a net outflow of highly skilled labor and an influx of low-skilled labor.
Since emigration and immigration flows directly affect the number and structure of the labor force of the Russian Federation and, accordingly, the dynamics of the human capital of the Russian Federation, implementing the research project Studying Mass Emigration and Immigration Flows, Strategic Guidelines for Russian migration policy will make it possible to analyze the impact of migration flows on the dynamics of the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of their impact on the level of available for production activities labor resources and the level of labor productivity (skill level). This, in turn, will allow us to assess the impact of migration flows on the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation
Project Aim
Assessing the role of various types of migration in economic growth, taking into account long-term demographic trends
Project Objectives:
- Reviewing domestic and foreign experience in modeling migration processes
2. Building long-term demographic scenarios reflecting migration processes for Russia and other regions of the world
3. Developing a general equilibrium model taking into account global migration processes, calibration of its parameters responsible for the role of labor resources in production and migration processes
4. Analyzing the economic consequences of various types of migration to the Russian Federation
Key Findings
2020
The program of the regular seminar Studying Mass Emigration and Immigration Flows, Strategic Guidelines for Russian migration policy has been developed. A preparatory study of the development of migration processes has been conducted
2021
The impact of migration on long-term real GDP growth has been assessed depending on the skill level of migrants for seventeen regions of the world, including 165 countries. A global computable general equilibrium model with one hundred overlapping generations has been created
2022
A panel cross-country econometric analysis has been carried out in order to assess the impact of sanctions on migration flows. It has been established that the type of sanctions that has the most pronounced and long-term negative impact on the net influx of migrants are financial sanctions. According to regressions, in the year of the introduction of financial sanctions, the net migration coefficient equal to the number of migrants per thousand people of the population will decrease by 1.10 points, in the following year the decrease may be even greater, namely -2.27 points. Taking into account the effect of other types of sanctions, the total decrease caused by sanctions will amount to 4.52 people per thousand. For Russia, sanctions mean a transition from a country with the status of a net recipient of labor to its donor, namely, as a result of financial sanctions, the net migration coefficient may decrease from 2.5 migrants per thousand people to -2.0 migrants per thousand people. In terms of absolute values, instead of a net inflow of 365 thousand people, there will be a net outflow of 292 thousand people.
Publications
Nesterova, K. Migration, Employee Qualifications and Economic Growth in the Regions of the World: Analysis on the Model with Overlapping Generations (RU)// Economic Policy. 2021. Vol. 16. No. 5. pp. 8-39
Conferences
Regular seminar Research of Mass Emigration and Immigration Flows and Strategic Guidelines of Russia's Migration Policy (RU)(Moscow, Russia, 09.07.2021, 30.09.2021, 06.12.2021)